REACTION: The Impacts of Trump’s Tariffs
- Antonio Ortiz-Mena
- 3 feb 2025
- 2 Min. de lectura
Actualizado: 21 jul 2025
Reaction
February 3, 2025
By Antonio Ortiz-Mena
Source: Americas Quarterly
The decision could push Mexico into a recession, while the U.S. may see higher consumer prices and slower growth.
TRUMP & LATIN AMERICA
On February 1, U.S. President Donald Trump upended relations with his country’s three largest trading partners by imposing a steep 25% tariff on most imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% levy on all imports from China.
In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced an identical 25% levy on $107 billion of American goods, and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum promised retaliation, but did not offer details on scope or targets. China also criticized the White House’s decision, saying it would file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization and vowing additional countermeasures without providing details.
The new U.S. tariffs—announced as Marco Rubio began his first overseas trip as Secretary of State in Central America—will take effect on Tuesday. If they hold, they are expected to have wide-ranging effects on the USMCA, the global trade system, and the economies of the four countries involved.
AQ asked analysts to share their reactions and perspectives.
The tariffs approved by President Trump ostensibly aim to pressure Canada and Mexico into further curbing undocumented migration and fentanyl trafficking to the U.S. However, these actions risk violating the USMCA, potentially exacerbating the challenges of migration and fentanyl trafficking. They also weaken the economies of all three North American countries, harming workers and consumers throughout the region. Furthermore, these orders raise concerns about the U.S.’s reliability and trustworthiness as a partner, especially amidst global instability and the complexities of U.S.-China competition.
Canada and Mexico have long sought to maintain separate discussion channels for security, migration, and trade, understanding that challenges in one area can negatively impact cooperation in others. The Mexican government has recognized that undocumented migration and fentanyl trafficking present shared challenges that require joint action and has expressed a willingness to continue collaborating with the U.S. on these issues. This cooperation—the smart and right choice—serves Mexico’s interests and will likely persist despite the tariffs, not because of them.
However, the tariffs create additional challenges. For example, restricting Mexican tomato exports to the U.S. could jeopardize the livelihoods of half a million Mexicans, potentially driving them to join drug trafficking organizations or migrate to the U.S., regardless of border enforcement efforts. Mexican retaliation could harm U.S. farmers and ranchers, for whom the Mexican market is a primary export destination. Disrupting regional production chains, especially in the automotive sector, would diminish North America’s global market share when competition from China intensifies.
Ultimately, the most significant consequences of these decrees may be geopolitical, not simply economic. For those of us who have for decades advocated for close trade and security ties with the U.S., admire its democracy and dynamic economy, and regard it as an ideal and trustworthy partner, it will be increasingly difficult to counter critics who have long been wary of the U.S. and who could advocate for closer relations with other global powers.
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