NEWS AND
INSIGHTS

The Unexpected Winner of Rising American Tariffs Is Mexico

There are two reasons that explain Mexico's imposition of tariffs on Chinese products: domestic reindustrialization and the elimination of China's unfair trade practices in the face of the USMCA renegotiation. Mexican tariffs may have long-term consequences, since, unlike in the US, Congress approved their implementation...

Los aranceles recientemente anunciados por México marcan un esfuerzo estratégico para impulsar la industria nacional y, al mismo tiempo, defender las normas comerciales mundiales.

The decline in Mexican tomato exports, given the suspension of the 1996 agreement between Mexico and the US, may exacerbate the migration crisis and organized crime. Most tomato exporters are located in Sinaloa, a hub of criminal activity for drug cartels. US producers cannot meet the demand for tomatoes, which encourages both sides to reach an agreement soon. Mexico will remain calm, composed, and analytical, and will not make any hasty decisions, certainly not before August

La propuesta del presidente Trump de elevar los aranceles a las exportaciones mexicanas al 30% revive preguntas importantes sobre la integración económica de América del Norte y las herramientas que utiliza EE.UU. para avanzar en sus objetivos. Utilizar el comercio como palanca podría socavar la confianza necesaria para abordar este desafío transnacional. Los agricultores estadounidenses también podrían estar en riesgo.

Está surgiendo un orden comercial pos-OMC. Disyuntiva de América Latina frente a este escenario: consolidarse en el sistema actual o adoptar la integración regional con mayor acercamiento a Asia y Europa. Los aranceles unilaterales (por nación y no por tipo de mercancía) de Washington desmantelan el principio de nación más favorecida (NMF) y crean una jerarquía entre socios comerciales.

Mexico has so far taken a cautious, diplomatic approach to trade talks with the Trump administration, despite being affected by U.S. tariffs. However, that approach may shift if tariffs persist or new ones are imposed under ongoing U.S. investigations (Section 232).

Trump’s decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum marks a significant escalation in his protectionist trade agenda, likely increasing tensions with key partners like Mexico and Canada ahead of the upcoming USMCA review.

Mexico and Canada can cooperate closely with the US on tariffs and screening Chinese investment.

Para muchos países de América, en particular los que tienen a China como principal socio comercial, los aranceles podrían empujarles a mantener la relación lejos de Estados Unidos.

A presidente mexicana Claudia Sheinbaum fortaleceu sua posição doméstica ao enfrentar as políticas de Donald Trump, especialmente em relação ao comércio.

The imposition of tariffs weakens the economy of the three North American countries, harming workers and consumers throughout the region.